Equirus's June 2026 aviation review found that Indian airlines carried about 2.4 million international passengers, 4% more than in May but still below the year-earlier level.
International flight operations rose 6% in June while total seat capacity stayed roughly unchanged, a trend Equirus said suggested a gradual return to normal after earlier disruptions.
Domestic passenger numbers came to about 13.5 million in June, down 12% from May and 1% year-on-year, a drop the firm attributed to the end of the summer holiday season.
Despite the domestic decline, the average passenger load factor was 85.7%, up 118 basis points from a year earlier, with revenue passenger kilometres near 13.3 billion and available seat kilometres down 2%.
Equirus identified rising fuel costs as the biggest challenge, noting that Brent crude averaged about $87.3 per barrel in July, up about 20% from both a year earlier and the previous month, and Singapore jet fuel reached about $155 per barrel, up 71% year-on-year.
The firm also cited the rupee's fall to about 95.4 per US dollar as raising dollar-denominated expenses such as aircraft leases and maintenance.
It described the outlook as mixed, saying passenger demand and load factors remain strong but fuel and currency pressures could weigh on profitability in the coming months.
Equirus added that disciplined capacity management and continued demand could support operational stability, with oil prices and exchange-rate movements remaining key factors.