Iran is using Middle East trade routes, sea lanes and energy infrastructure as pressure tools against the United States rather than pursuing a quick military victory, according to Gulf officials and analysts.
Under a controlled-escalation approach driven by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders, Tehran aims to convince Washington and its allies that refusing to accommodate Iran over the Strait of Hormuz will deepen the crisis and raise their costs.
Oman, with support from Gulf states, has proposed managing the strait through voluntary fees, while Iran demands administrative control and the right to charge ships; Washington rejects any tolls and says the waterway must remain international.
President Donald Trump told reporters on Aug. 2 that talks with Iran would be held the following day and that he had suspended a planned strike in hope of an agreement to reopen the strait; Iran said no talks were under way.
Washington Institute researcher Michael Knights said Iran's greatest advantage is not the ability to hurt the United States or Israel but the capacity to damage regional countries and the global economy; the strait once carried about one-fifth of the world's oil.
A Saudi-led maritime coalition has formed to protect commercial shipping and share intelligence without seeking direct confrontation with Iran, while Western powers are focusing on guarding trade routes and energy sites rather than escalating.
A senior Iranian source said Tehran concluded that past flexibility allowed Washington to increase pressure and that it must strengthen its bargaining position before meaningful talks.
Regional officials and analysts say Iran believes it can outlast Washington, partly because Trump is reluctant to enter a new Middle East conflict before the November midterm elections; neither side appears ready to back down, and analysts warn the standoff could spin out of control.